* Analysts expect new tumble, early electionsBy Gavin Jones and Philip PullellaROME, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi won a crucial vote of confidence on Friday, giving
his struggling centre-right government a new, but probably
short, lease of life.Berlusconi, who said before the vote that the country would
be thrown into economic and social catastrophe if his government
collapsed now, won the vote 316 for and 301 against.The result was in doubt until the last minute and even some
centre-right members expressed uncertainty and showed
nervousness before the vote on whether the government would pull
through.The situation was so tense that some in the centre-right
went into last-minute horse-trading meetings with Berlusconi,
who is trying to contain a rebellion in his coalition.There was even doubt until the last minute if the quorum
making the vote valid existed since most of the opposition
boycotted the first round of the vote.One coalition parliamentarian, Francesco Nucara, told the
chamber he was voting to save the government for the good of the
country but openly expressed dissent with the way Berlusconi was
running the centre-right and his choice of ministers.”You have put some people in your government who would not
be worthy to be doorkeepers in some of your companies,” Nucara
said in his address before the vote.The prime minister’s administration has been plagued by
scandals, economic stagnation and intense pressure from
financial markets.Berlusconi was forced to call the vote after his divided and
undisciplined coalition suffered a major embarrassment when it
failed to pass a routine budget provision on Tuesday.The prime minister was holding a cabinet meeting immediately
after the vote to re-present the budget measure defeated on
Tuesday, a result that Berlusconi wrote off as just an
“accident” because some parliamentarians arrived late.TEMPORARY REPRIEVEWhile the vote gave Berlusconi a reprieve, analysts say it
will be just a matter of months only before a new crisis hits,
and Italy is likely to hold elections next spring, a year early.”The anxiety and fatigue of the ruling majority does not
point to any revival. If anything, it increases the sense of a
government limping towards the terminus, hoping to make it to
the end of the year without being forced to stop earlier,” said
Massimo Franco in newspaper Corriere della Sera.Berlusconi told parliament on Thursday the fall of his
government would be “a victory for those who want to see (Italy)
fall into decline, catastrophe and the kind of speculation we
have seen for months in Europe and Italy”.Several newspaper editorials on Friday highlighted the lack
of new ideas in Berlusconi’s speech to parliament a day before
the vote was taken, describing him as paralysed by a fear of
aggravating tensions in his coalition.”Not one new thought was expressed. Absolutely nothing. A
complete vacuum,” said Luca Ricolfi in La Stampa daily.
“Berlusconi has by now become a factor that is immobilising and
freezing Italian politics.”A number of centre-right deputies were absent from Tuesday’s
vote, infuriating Berlusconi and feeding suspicions that some
stayed away to raise their bargaining power in the coalition.He is facing internal challenges from a number of ministers,
most notably from Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, who are
unhappy with his leadership and the damage his personal and
legal woes have done to Italy’s reputation.The prime minister is on trial in four separate cases,
accused of fraud, corruption and paying for sex with a minor.President Giorgio Napolitano entered the fray this week,
expressing deep concern about the viability of government and
demanding a “credible response” to Italy’s acute problems.A Reuters survey of about 20 analysts said on Thursday that
Italy was already in recession, would barely muster any growth
in 2012 and would miss the government’s fiscal deficit targets.Its sovereign debt has been downgraded in the past month by
Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, and since early August it
has relied on the European Central Bank to buy its bonds to
prevent yields rising to unsustainable levels.
